The Hotline mailbag is released every single Friday, apart from in the scenario of supernova information like USC and UCLA leaving the Pac-12. Send out questions to [email protected] or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Owing to volume — and in some scenarios, the require for study — not all questions will be answered the 7 days of submission. Many thanks for your being familiar with.
Some queries have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Could Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff have finished anything to protect against the L.A. educational facilities from leaving, or was the revenue hole from the Larry Scott period far too a great deal to prevail over? — @KwadeSays
The degree to which Kliavkoff is dependable for the meeting on the brink of destruction is a topic I have pondered normally in the previous 48 hrs and reviewed at size with the Hotline’s A-checklist resources.
Could he have accomplished far more all through his 12 months in place of work to guarantee USC (primarily) and UCLA (secondarily) were entirely committed? Did he take their allegiance for granted?
To some extent, the response to all three issues is yes.
It has to be sure for the reason that it unfolded on his enjoy and he was caught off guard.
That on your own implies there was not maximum engagement with the L.A. faculties on the crucial concern of meeting earnings.
And I would wager seriously that Kliavkoff is next-guessing himself for not obtaining done a lot more, even although every thing he did above the previous 12 months appeared rational at the time centered on the info at hand.
Or as one particular meeting source said: “I like George and imagine he’s accomplished a good position for us. But he’s swimming with sharks.”
A single of people sharks is the gentleman who appeared him “in the eye” and agreed to an alliance: Huge Ten commissioner Kevin Warren.
That said, there was almost nothing Kliavkoff could have carried out presented the hand he was dealt.
The moment Fox ran the revenue numbers and whispered in Warren’s ear and the Large Ten opened its door, the Trojans and Bruins ended up headed to the greenest pasture possible.
In the Pac-12, they could have fairly anticipated $40-some thing million for every 12 months in media rights starting up in 2024.
In the Major 10, that determine will double, at minimum amount.
And as we explained on Friday, strategic faults designed several years in the past by Kliavkoff’s predecessor set the stage for the educational institutions to depart.
Had Larry Scott gotten the Pac-12 Networks on DirecTV to enhance profits … experienced he agreed to a shorter Tier 1 deal to enable the Pac-12 to renegotiate its media legal rights ahead of the Major 10 … had he acknowledged a lifeboat from ESPN a few many years in the past … none of this would have took place.
So, yes: Kliavkoff has to individual this mainly because he’s in charge.
But even with hindsight, we’re at a reduction to pinpoint a precise step he could have taken to reduce it.
Curious for your consider on what this means for Cal and Stanford and how other conferences benefit/imagine about the Bay Region media market. — @nwpapas
Do you feel Cal and Stanford may use this chance to exit football? — @BearFlagFan
In all candor, I think this could mark the beginning of the close of major higher education soccer for the Bay Region colleges.
Their relatively low price in the college or university football marketplace is one cause for that bleak outlook.
Of course, the Bay Spot is a substantial media industry, and that mattered a decade ago when it was all about how lots of cable houses ended up in your footprint.
Now, the primary driver is brand name price: Fox and ESPN will pay for the soccer applications that generate scores and are most likely to land in prime Television set windows. Neither Bay Space team clears these bars.
(From the standpoint of likely membership in the Big 10, why would Northwestern ever want the convention to toss Stanford a lifeline? They are direct opponents on the recruiting path.)
The other explanation for our skepticism is the economic landscape.
At some position in the in close proximity to upcoming, faculty athletes probably will be declared staff, or pseudo-employees, and get compensation from the educational facilities for their services.
There’s no possibility Stanford would ever do that, and we doubt Cal would consider the plunge. On each campuses, the school would revolt like it is Paris in 1789.
Increase the unseemly facet of identify, impression and likeness — when it is employed as a proxy for pay back-for-engage in — and the complete sport is careening in a path that conflicts with the institutional philosophies on both sides of the Bay.
Did the UC Regents force back again at all on UCLA splitting from Cal? Or are they totally individual entities on this? — @WorkishFromHome
UCLA’s skill to individual from Cal is a person of the most baffling facets of the development.
Why would the University of California’s Board of Regents enable the Westwood campus to acquire a phase that so damages the Berkeley campus?
UCLA gained the required bureaucratic approvals, but at this stage, that’s the extent of our know-how of the method.
There is a person other issue to look at, even so.
Michael Drake is the president of the University of California. Beforehand, he was the president of Ohio Condition.
UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond spent practically a 10 years doing work in the Ohio State athletic department.
They know every other well.
And for that matter, it’s value noting that USC athletic director Mike Bohn grew up in Major 10 state, in Illinois, even though USC president Carol Folt is from … Akron.
Did all individuals Midwestern roots enjoy a position in the schools’ willingness to go away their West Coast brethren powering?
I can’t reply that. But it’s a person of quite a few problems we’ve pondered.
How united are the 10 remaining educational facilities? Are Washington and Oregon most likely to take the 1st very good invite? — @LAWomensHoops
The Pac-12 issued a assertion on Thursday in which it declared an “unwavering … commitment” to continuing as the Meeting of Champions and seemed forward “to partnering with present and possible users.”
The colleges are absolutely united until they aren’t.
The unfortunate truth is that each college has entered survival manner, with no allegiance besides to alone.
The only factor bonding them jointly is the absence of escape hatches.
With the Major Ten’s doorway shut, at the very least for the time remaining, the Huskies and Ducks are stuck.
We expect the Arizona faculties and perhaps Colorado and Utah to take a look at a go into the Significant 12.
But yet again, fascination implies minimal without having an invitation.
What colleges are most possible to be qualified for enlargement by the Pac-12? How significant do they go? — @thankyoucallen
With its survival at stake, the conference have to broaden the scope of opportunity membership.
Geography no more time issues.
Tutorial track record no extended issues.
Religious affiliation no for a longer time issues (in principle).
The Pac-12 should think about anybody and everyone, from Boise Point out to San Diego State to SMU.
But absent a raid of — or merger with — the Large 12, there aren’t any universities that would qualify as accretive (fiscally) for the remaining 10 users.
Are the Arizona schools joining the SEC? — @P12PRE
We can reply that question in short order — no — but it raises a broader issue:
How significantly benefit do Arizona and Arizona Condition have on the open up market? Particularly, how interesting are they to the Big 12?
The educational facilities absolutely in good shape geographically, and Arizona’s basketball method would be best for the Significant 12.
But valuation is primarily based on the power of your soccer brand name, and the Wildcats are a tick above zero on that scale.
The Sunlight Devils would have to have to pack more than enough media benefit to account for Arizona, as perfectly, if we presume they’re a bundle offer. (I’m not guaranteed that’s the case, but it’s a matter for a further column.)
ASU’s scenario is equivalent to the problem going through Cal and Stanford: The size of your media market place matters far considerably less than it did a decade back.
Value is centered on the ability of your football method to push ratings and declare key broadcast home windows.
In that regard, the Sunshine Devils are a single of numerous applications on the 2nd tier.
Could the Major 12 choose to expand since it thinks even larger is superior, even without a corresponding raise in profits?
That is one particular of numerous unknowns.
How can Washington president Ana Mari Cauce guide the Pac-12 executive committee and direct Washington out of the convention at the exact same time? — @EnzoRossi85
Cauce took demand of the govt committee, which drives the agenda for the Pac-12 board, on July 1.
At the exact time, UW is unquestionably exploring for an escape hatch.
Is she proclaiming allegiance whilst wanting to leave? How considerably credibility does she have with fellow presidents and chancellors?
Most likely no far more or less than any one else.
In every single circumstance, they are dedicated until they are not.
The situation is deeply unfortunate.
Do the Pac-12 legacy media have any discernible worth, or is Fred Sanford now the only viable customer for the networks? — @EngelKRichard
At this issue, it’s unachievable to decide the media benefit of any Pac-12 inventory because we do not know if there will be a Pac-12 when the future agreement cycle begins in the summer of 2024.
(That coincides with the departure of USC and UCLA, by the way.)
What we do know is that Kliavkoff’s next moves on meeting membership are unable to materialize with no enter from probable media associates — he will have to know what the networks would provide based on the framework of the league.
And any conversations with ESPN, Fox, CBS, and so forth., will assuredly involve merger or partnership selections with the Massive 12 and, potentially, the ACC.
Prior to Thursday, the Pac-12’s media legal rights negotiations have been set to commence later this yr in orderly fashion.
Now, survival, mergers, acquisitions and media negotiations are all in the very same cauldron.
What’s the most most likely scenario, in your see, for Washington Condition? Do president Kirk Schulz’s personal connections make any difference? — @TWamsgans
Schulz put in seven years as the president of Kansas Condition (2009-16) and could endeavor to use his interactions in the Huge 12 to broker a deal in which the Pac-12 survives in some sort or vogue.
Will that be more than enough? We are unable to say.
But were being the Hotline to supply a Fear Component listing — the Pac-12 faculties with the most to drop in the upcoming 18-24 months — the Cougars would be at the best, adopted carefully by Oregon Condition, Stanford, Cal and Colorado.
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